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The Age of Consequences and a vision of the future…
The Age of Consequences and a vision of the future…
Our modern civilization, through its gargantuan appetite for natural resources and its propensity to generate wastes and pollution, has unleashed a number of dynamics which are now severe enough to impact on human welfare worldwide. These dynamics are (1) Climate Change, (2) Resource & Energy Depletion and (3) Environmental Degradation which henceforth will be referred to as the CREED dynamics.
(1) Climate Change. Since the industrial revolution our civilisation has been pumping billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels. CO2 is a greenhouse gas that traps solar radiation within the atmosphere and turns this radiation into thermal energy (heat). This additional heat inevitably works its way through the planetary climatic and oceanic systems thereby causing extremes of weather like more powerful storms, more rainfall in some places or drought in others and raises sea levels and global temperatures.
(2) Environmental degradation is characterised by a decline in soil fertility, a decline in fisheries, water crisis, and loss of biodiversity, land and water pollution. Currently 40% of land worldwide is seriously degraded whilst substantially degraded land may climb to 95% by 2050. World forestry cover has declined from 50% before the industrial revolution to about 30% now. Over fishing affect 30% of fish stocks and 60% to 90% of oceans are over-exploited. By 2050 most fisheries will have collapsed on current trends.
Water scarcity now affects one-third of humanity increasing to two-thirds by 2025,
80% of waste water worldwide is dumped into the environment untreated. Plastic waste pollution is everywhere on the planet with microscopic plastic debris found in many animals. There is a gradual loss of biodiversity worldwide. It has been estimated that a 100 to 1000 species go extinct each year, a far greater number than the natural extinction rate. Taken together these are hall marks of a decline in the environment worldwide.
(3) Energy Depletion. 80% of world energy consumption comes from either, coal, oil or natural gas, the main contributors to CO2 emissions. In spite of considerable efforts worldwide, human civilisation is largely unable to reduce its fossil fuel consumption significantly. Upsurges in renewable energy production may not cause a dramatic reduction in demand for fossil energy. Only when fossil fuel resources will have been severely depleted thereby causing a reduction in supply that fossil fuel consumption will decline. It is probable that the world is fast approaching that point for oil supplies.
(4) Resource depletion. This least visible parameter refers to non-fossil fuels mineral supply. Although mineral scarcity is not yet apparent, humankind’s voracious appetite for minerals keeps on increasing. There is a worldwide search for new sources of ores that fuels war and destitution as can be seen in Central Africa.
World population has reached 7.5 billion humans and may reach 9 billion by 2050. Rising prosperity means increased demands for food, energy, water and other resources. Pressures on the environment will remain high into the foreseeable future. CREED dynamics will therefore continue apace. In short, our civilisation is slowly eroding its resource bases and is in over-shoot.
In that context, it is likely that the world’s ability to produce enough food for all will be reduced. Food prices may rise together with shortages. The poor will suffer most and first. Hunger or malnutrition may rise. Energy depletion may cause large spikes in oil prices and could lead to shortages. Oil is indispensable for modern transportation systems and agro-chemicals. High oil prices and / or shortages may result in poor economic growth or depressions and impact food prices with severe social consequences leading to unrests, revolutions or wars. We have well and truly entered an age of consequences of our own making.
The triple crisis of 2008 – 2010 which combined a financial meltdown with food and oil prices hikes caused immense human suffering across the planet. In Mauritius there were significant drops in tourism arrivals and revenue. This triple crisis had many causes but to some extent it was also the resultant of high oil prices, triggered by the difficulty of many oil producing countries in increasing oil production to dampen high oil prices. This crisis is a foretaste of what is in store for us. This time round the world was lucky because of (a) the rapid injection of unlimited funds into the failing financial system by the central banks of rich countries and (b) the rapid rise of US light tight oil production as from 2007 onwards which managed to prevent a significant reduction in oil supplies worldwide and so prepared the way for the oil price collapse of 2014.
These two factors did much to save the decade of 2010 – 2020. It is possible that US light tight oil production may reach a plateau within the next few years before a gradual decline sets in as the resource is depleted. Should that be the case, further oil price hikes are very likely in the years to come. The basic model of future crisis may well be along the lines of financial instability together with high food and oil prices, water scarcity followed by economic depression. A period of recuperation characterised by lower food and oil prices may follow until a new crisis comes along. With each round of crisis, our economic and material welfare may be reduced measurably generating more poverty world-wide. Our civilisation begins its decline. In our model, we ignore the real possibility of major warfare among powerful countries. Such events are very difficult to predict and can only accelerate decline.
Although we paint a rather bleak picture of the future that many will reject out of hand, at all levels of society much can be done to mitigate the impacts of such crisis.
We have argued that our modern industrial civilization has generated a number of dynamics such as climate change, environmental degradation, energy and resource depletion which are now impacting human welfare worldwide. In short our civilisation is in over-shoot. These dynamics are probably unstoppable given the momentum they have acquired by now. These dynamics generate food, energy and water crisis that come and go, together with serious economic & financial difficulties. Taken together these crises can reduce human welfare.
These are hallmarks of a decline in our civilization. We should not be surprised of our situation; after all, historically civilizations emerge, grow, reach maturity, and then decline. This is what happened to the Western Roman Empire, the Egyptian, Chinese civilizations amongst many others. Once in full decline, other civilizations rise and the cycle continues anew.
It is likely that we are now living through the opening phases of decline of our own modern industrial civilization. Note that decline is not a fast and abrupt phenomenon. It can unfold over several decades or even centuries. The next few decades from 2020 – 2050 will probably be critical. Much can be done to slow decline and soften impacts.
Common sense dictates that such a project of containing decline ought to be driven by Government and supported by citizens. Alas Government and the corporate world are both locked into a trance that limits their scope of action. Briefly, both Governments and corporations are committed to economic growth at any costs because their survival is dependent on delivering welfare to voters and profits to shareholders. Hence both entities are chained to a short term mode of thinking that relies mainly on high – tech, market based and financially profitable responses.
Yet tackling many of the dynamics of decline requires that economic growth and profitability ought to take a back seat from time to time and that a longer view of human welfare be contemplated. Although we acknowledge that both Governments and the corporate world are beginning to change their approach to both environmental degradation and climate change, they still do not seem to grasp that our civilisation is in over-shoot and in danger of decline.
Hence government and corporate sector’s responses are somehow inadequate. The top down approach has reached its limits. The lack of real action on the climate change front is an obvious example. The failure of COP 25 in Madrid in December 2019 demonstrates this point since nearly everybody from governments to large corporations and institutions worldwide agreed about the urgency of climate change. Furthermore no significant and voluntary reductions on green-house gases emissions have been noted and a point of no return has probably been breached by climatic systems a long time ago. The COVID 19 pandemic and the subsequent lock downs worldwide did reduce greenhouse gasses emissions significantly, but they were not voluntary and resulted in economic hardships. Given that the pandemic is largely over, greenhouse gasses emissions will probably resume their upward march.
Thus much will have to rely on local citizen actions. The overall approach is to find acceptable local alternatives as substitutes for imported goods and services where feasible. The goal is NOT to become self-sufficient in everything, that would be both unrealistic and detrimental to the population. However, there is much that can be done here and now without living in destitution and misery. Let us explore some of these avenues of local citizen action.
Food is a priority. Mauritius imports 80% of its foodstuff and this ratio shows no sign of going down. This dependency on imports is a major weakness for the country.
Yet, from the consumers’ perspective, food in Mauritius can be expensive. An obvious response is for individual citizens to begin composting their kitchen wastes and growing fruits and vegetables if circumstances permit. Widespread home composting by citizens will do much to reduce solid wastes problems whilst improving soil fertility. Over the past years we have noted an upsurge in home composting and in the number of small enterprises that have sprung to grow organic vegetables or establish nurseries. It is an encouraging trend.
However, much of our food security will depend on our ability to grow more starchy foods like potatoes, manioc or breadfruit. Although we do not believe that we shall soon face a situation of shortages in either rice or wheat, prices could increase dramatically as in 2008. Wherever possible, growing starchy staples will mitigate impacts of high food prices on house hold budgets.
In any supermarket, we find large selections of imported processed foods like biscuits, jams, cakes, ice creams for instance. It would be advantageous for citizens to reduce where possible purchases of imported items and prefer locally processed foods instead. That will enable more foreign exchange to remain in the country. Furthermore, cooking from basic ingredients make costs go down, savings made and useful skills learned.
Another avenue of action would be food preservation in time of plenty with pickles, jams, dried or frozen vegetables. Home bread making and bakery are within the reach of most households.
Caution is advised when buying consumer electronics such as cell phones and computers. The eagerness for consumers to buy such goods is unreasonable. It is preferable to use existing electronic devices until they are beyond repair and to be very wary of falling for new versions of devices that do exactly what the previous versions did at premium prices.
Clothing and apparel purchases should also be scrutinised carefully. Let us give precedence over local brands rather than imported ones.
Finally, let us find contentment with what we have now rather than seeking more material possessions tomorrow. The rush of excitement we feel when shopping is ephemeral and superficial. Long lasting contentment is generated when we regain initiatives in our lives. This can be achieved by increasing our knowledge base, skills and aptitudes. All of the above may seem pitifully inadequate given the dynamics at hand. Yet with each seed planted, each ounce of compost produced, each home made biscuit cooked, we steer a path away from a harsh decline and make way for a gentler future. It is interesting to note that the COID 19 crisis has shown that resilience is a local affair and so is sustainability. Let us all take note of that.
Karim Jaufeerally
Our modern civilization, through its gargantuan appetite for natural resources and its propensity to generate wastes and pollution, has unleashed a number of dynamics which are now severe enough to impact on human welfare worldwide. These dynamics are (1) Climate Change, (2) Resource & Energy Depletion and (3) Environmental Degradation which henceforth will be referred to as the CREED dynamics.
(1) Climate Change. Since the industrial revolution our civilisation has been pumping billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels. CO2 is a greenhouse gas that traps solar radiation within the atmosphere and turns this radiation into thermal energy (heat). This additional heat inevitably works its way through the planetary climatic and oceanic systems thereby causing extremes of weather like more powerful storms, more rainfall in some places or drought in others and raises sea levels and global temperatures.
(2) Environmental degradation is characterised by a decline in soil fertility, a decline in fisheries, water crisis, and loss of biodiversity, land and water pollution. Currently 40% of land worldwide is seriously degraded whilst substantially degraded land may climb to 95% by 2050. World forestry cover has declined from 50% before the industrial revolution to about 30% now. Over fishing affect 30% of fish stocks and 60% to 90% of oceans are over-exploited. By 2050 most fisheries will have collapsed on current trends.
Water scarcity now affects one-third of humanity increasing to two-thirds by 2025,
80% of waste water worldwide is dumped into the environment untreated. Plastic waste pollution is everywhere on the planet with microscopic plastic debris found in many animals. There is a gradual loss of biodiversity worldwide. It has been estimated that a 100 to 1000 species go extinct each year, a far greater number than the natural extinction rate. Taken together these are hall marks of a decline in the environment worldwide.
(3) Energy Depletion. 80% of world energy consumption comes from either, coal, oil or natural gas, the main contributors to CO2 emissions. In spite of considerable efforts worldwide, human civilisation is largely unable to reduce its fossil fuel consumption significantly. Upsurges in renewable energy production may not cause a dramatic reduction in demand for fossil energy. Only when fossil fuel resources will have been severely depleted thereby causing a reduction in supply that fossil fuel consumption will decline. It is probable that the world is fast approaching that point for oil supplies.
(4) Resource depletion. This least visible parameter refers to non-fossil fuels mineral supply. Although mineral scarcity is not yet apparent, humankind’s voracious appetite for minerals keeps on increasing. There is a worldwide search for new sources of ores that fuels war and destitution as can be seen in Central Africa.
World population has reached 7.5 billion humans and may reach 9 billion by 2050. Rising prosperity means increased demands for food, energy, water and other resources. Pressures on the environment will remain high into the foreseeable future. CREED dynamics will therefore continue apace. In short, our civilisation is slowly eroding its resource bases and is in over-shoot.
In that context, it is likely that the world’s ability to produce enough food for all will be reduced. Food prices may rise together with shortages. The poor will suffer most and first. Hunger or malnutrition may rise. Energy depletion may cause large spikes in oil prices and could lead to shortages. Oil is indispensable for modern transportation systems and agro-chemicals. High oil prices and / or shortages may result in poor economic growth or depressions and impact food prices with severe social consequences leading to unrests, revolutions or wars. We have well and truly entered an age of consequences of our own making.
The triple crisis of 2008 – 2010 which combined a financial meltdown with food and oil prices hikes caused immense human suffering across the planet. In Mauritius there were significant drops in tourism arrivals and revenue. This triple crisis had many causes but to some extent it was also the resultant of high oil prices, triggered by the difficulty of many oil producing countries in increasing oil production to dampen high oil prices. This crisis is a foretaste of what is in store for us. This time round the world was lucky because of (a) the rapid injection of unlimited funds into the failing financial system by the central banks of rich countries and (b) the rapid rise of US light tight oil production as from 2007 onwards which managed to prevent a significant reduction in oil supplies worldwide and so prepared the way for the oil price collapse of 2014.
These two factors did much to save the decade of 2010 – 2020. It is possible that US light tight oil production may reach a plateau within the next few years before a gradual decline sets in as the resource is depleted. Should that be the case, further oil price hikes are very likely in the years to come. The basic model of future crisis may well be along the lines of financial instability together with high food and oil prices, water scarcity followed by economic depression. A period of recuperation characterised by lower food and oil prices may follow until a new crisis comes along. With each round of crisis, our economic and material welfare may be reduced measurably generating more poverty world-wide. Our civilisation begins its decline. In our model, we ignore the real possibility of major warfare among powerful countries. Such events are very difficult to predict and can only accelerate decline.
Although we paint a rather bleak picture of the future that many will reject out of hand, at all levels of society much can be done to mitigate the impacts of such crisis.
We have argued that our modern industrial civilization has generated a number of dynamics such as climate change, environmental degradation, energy and resource depletion which are now impacting human welfare worldwide. In short our civilisation is in over-shoot. These dynamics are probably unstoppable given the momentum they have acquired by now. These dynamics generate food, energy and water crisis that come and go, together with serious economic & financial difficulties. Taken together these crises can reduce human welfare.
These are hallmarks of a decline in our civilization. We should not be surprised of our situation; after all, historically civilizations emerge, grow, reach maturity, and then decline. This is what happened to the Western Roman Empire, the Egyptian, Chinese civilizations amongst many others. Once in full decline, other civilizations rise and the cycle continues anew.
It is likely that we are now living through the opening phases of decline of our own modern industrial civilization. Note that decline is not a fast and abrupt phenomenon. It can unfold over several decades or even centuries. The next few decades from 2020 – 2050 will probably be critical. Much can be done to slow decline and soften impacts.
Common sense dictates that such a project of containing decline ought to be driven by Government and supported by citizens. Alas Government and the corporate world are both locked into a trance that limits their scope of action. Briefly, both Governments and corporations are committed to economic growth at any costs because their survival is dependent on delivering welfare to voters and profits to shareholders. Hence both entities are chained to a short term mode of thinking that relies mainly on high – tech, market based and financially profitable responses.
Yet tackling many of the dynamics of decline requires that economic growth and profitability ought to take a back seat from time to time and that a longer view of human welfare be contemplated. Although we acknowledge that both Governments and the corporate world are beginning to change their approach to both environmental degradation and climate change, they still do not seem to grasp that our civilisation is in over-shoot and in danger of decline.
Hence government and corporate sector’s responses are somehow inadequate. The top down approach has reached its limits. The lack of real action on the climate change front is an obvious example. The failure of COP 25 in Madrid in December 2019 demonstrates this point since nearly everybody from governments to large corporations and institutions worldwide agreed about the urgency of climate change. Furthermore no significant and voluntary reductions on green-house gases emissions have been noted and a point of no return has probably been breached by climatic systems a long time ago. The COVID 19 pandemic and the subsequent lock downs worldwide did reduce greenhouse gasses emissions significantly, but they were not voluntary and resulted in economic hardships. Given that the pandemic is largely over, greenhouse gasses emissions will probably resume their upward march.
Thus much will have to rely on local citizen actions. The overall approach is to find acceptable local alternatives as substitutes for imported goods and services where feasible. The goal is NOT to become self-sufficient in everything, that would be both unrealistic and detrimental to the population. However, there is much that can be done here and now without living in destitution and misery. Let us explore some of these avenues of local citizen action.
Food is a priority. Mauritius imports 80% of its foodstuff and this ratio shows no sign of going down. This dependency on imports is a major weakness for the country.
Yet, from the consumers’ perspective, food in Mauritius can be expensive. An obvious response is for individual citizens to begin composting their kitchen wastes and growing fruits and vegetables if circumstances permit. Widespread home composting by citizens will do much to reduce solid wastes problems whilst improving soil fertility. Over the past years we have noted an upsurge in home composting and in the number of small enterprises that have sprung to grow organic vegetables or establish nurseries. It is an encouraging trend.
However, much of our food security will depend on our ability to grow more starchy foods like potatoes, manioc or breadfruit. Although we do not believe that we shall soon face a situation of shortages in either rice or wheat, prices could increase dramatically as in 2008. Wherever possible, growing starchy staples will mitigate impacts of high food prices on house hold budgets.
In any supermarket, we find large selections of imported processed foods like biscuits, jams, cakes, ice creams for instance. It would be advantageous for citizens to reduce where possible purchases of imported items and prefer locally processed foods instead. That will enable more foreign exchange to remain in the country. Furthermore, cooking from basic ingredients make costs go down, savings made and useful skills learned.
Another avenue of action would be food preservation in time of plenty with pickles, jams, dried or frozen vegetables. Home bread making and bakery are within the reach of most households.
Caution is advised when buying consumer electronics such as cell phones and computers. The eagerness for consumers to buy such goods is unreasonable. It is preferable to use existing electronic devices until they are beyond repair and to be very wary of falling for new versions of devices that do exactly what the previous versions did at premium prices.
Clothing and apparel purchases should also be scrutinised carefully. Let us give precedence over local brands rather than imported ones.
Finally, let us find contentment with what we have now rather than seeking more material possessions tomorrow. The rush of excitement we feel when shopping is ephemeral and superficial. Long lasting contentment is generated when we regain initiatives in our lives. This can be achieved by increasing our knowledge base, skills and aptitudes. All of the above may seem pitifully inadequate given the dynamics at hand. Yet with each seed planted, each ounce of compost produced, each home made biscuit cooked, we steer a path away from a harsh decline and make way for a gentler future. It is interesting to note that the COID 19 crisis has shown that resilience is a local affair and so is sustainability. Let us all take note of that.
Karim Jaufeerally